Apareceu a luz no fim do túnel para IRB (IRBR3)? Ações crescem na Bolsa e há ventos favoráveis, diz o BTG
Será que chegou a hora da virada do IRB (IRBR3)? As ações da resseguradora estão em alta na Bolsa e o BTG Pactual (BPAC11) observa que há ventos favoráveis para a companhia. Contudo, os analistas do banco seguem cautelosos com a empresa.
"Com os últimos meses mostrando ganhos positivos, um segundo trimestre potencialmente melhor e uma 'pequena' multa da Justiça norte-americana, pode-se argumentar que o IRB pode sair do túnel", avisam os analistas do BTG Eduardo Rosman, Thiago Paura e Ricardo Buchpiguel.
Nos últimos doze meses, as ações do IRB amargam uma queda de quase 70% na Bolsa. Porém, desde o início do ano, esses papéis conseguiram uma valorização de 6,3%. Veja o gráfico:
Cotação IRBR3
Gráfico gerado em: 26/04/2023
1 Ano-67,30 (-56,73%)Variação do períodoR$ 18,45MínimaR$ 90,00Máxima
Fonte:
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Nas últimas semanas, a empresa negociada na Bolsa pelo ticker IRBR3 apresentou ao mercado duas boas notícias: em fevereiro, o IRB conseguiu um lucro de R$ 14,3 milhões, sendo que a empresa havia amargado um prejuízo de R$ 50,9 milhões no mesmo período de 2022.
Além disso, a companhia fechou um acordo com o Departamento de Justiça dos Estados Unidos e pagará US$ 5 milhões a título de compensação por causa da fake news de que Warren Buffett seria um dos acionistas da resseguradora brasileira, caso que explodiu em 2020 e contribuiu para arranhar a imagem da empresa.
IRB Brasil: O que esperar das ações?
As projeções do BTG apontam que o IRB pode apresentar um lucro líquido de R$ 35 milhões no primeiro trimestre de 2023 (1T23). O balanço da empresa será divulgado no dia 15 de maio.
"Com uma posição de capital muito apertada, o IRB normalmente buscaria outro aumento de capital. No entanto, o baixo apetite dos atuais stakeholders indica que isso só seria uma opção caso o capital regulatório caísse abaixo do mínimo, obrigando-os a fazê-lo", destacam os analistas.
Para o trio, mesmo que o caminho para dias melhores ainda seja nebuloso, "o IRB provavelmente também será uma empresa menor do que antes e a 'lucratividade sustentável' ainda é um ponto de interrogação".
"Porém, a luz no fim do túnel parece estar cada vez mais próxima. Permanecemos neutros/cautelosos na história devido à baixa visibilidade e ao balanço esticado, mas não descartamos que a ação continue sua trajetória de alta das últimas semanas", complementam os especialistas ao analisarem o IRB.
